target is new

A lot is said on the possible future of Google+. It seems hard to add a lot to it. On the other hand, we can now see the dust come down a bit and see where it could heading. Possibly it will turn out to be rather different, but well, lets share some thoughts here, based on some deeper drivers that emerges.

1.
Social is becoming a natural part of all services and products that are designed now and in the coming future. In that sense I agree on the views of Roger McNamee. The talk is highly quoted as “social is over”, but that is not the right sentiment. Social is not over, social is not a separate entity anymore, it has become part of everything. That is exactly what we see in the business context happening; social as mean to get in touch with your clients and build on trust and activation is now becoming running business.

2.
We mature in our use of online relations. We see that people, youngsters up front, are becoming professional in the dividing our sharing habits to different levels of online relations. We understand that not everyone is attached the same and it to trust. The rise of private networks is a clear sign, as is the use of private functions in existing networks like groups of closed accounts in Twitter.

3.
The way we communicate is also going to a new phase. We are more selective in sending out and receiving anonymous messages, and we have built a layered messaging habit with private chats in realtime, private messaging to people in our own network and publishing opinions to shape our personal brand.

These three elements are happening for some time now. The existing social platforms (Twitter and Facebook as most important ones) are continuous trying to redesign and introducing new functions to address this developments. And you see that Google+ is using its advantage to start from scratch building up this new social layer and revamping the existing services.

In that, Google could really leverage from the existing fundaments. The hardest part will be to keep focus on the essence of these elements in rolling out the new Google of the second decade, always the hardest part to migrate from existing products.
But the other platforms have even a harder job there of course. Facebook will try to catch up with an enhanced friend listing system. Twitter will bring more coherence in the lists and private accounts.

The coming year, or maybe better; half a year, the different platforms will stand next to each other and creating somewhat sharper profiles. Facebook will be (stay) the private friends network for the masses to share thoughts with friends and find nice stuff for your day to day life. The messaging center will be better organized and extended, maybe even with a simple calendar for instance, to fit all the needs for your private communications.
Twitter will remain and become even more the platform for the latest news, realtime sharing of events with impact, from incidents to big live events in real or on TV for instance. It will be more and more the platform for ad hoc and topic related communications and losing the day to day hangout function.
Google+ will become the serious and professional thoughts-sharing platform. What Twitter was the first years. But also integrating services like Quora. If you are looking for information and advice on stuff Google+ will be your source. It will take that role from Twitter, and it will also take a part of the hangout function dividing it with Facebook.

In the meanwhile the battlefield of the platforms is going on, on the deeper level. Who will be building the best functioning social layer. Facebook have an advantage with the Like and Connect system, but Google has its search-profiles and can grow easily in a social backbone too. If Twitter can team up with Apple it will be a serious competitor in that field too.

When the platforms are closing by creating their dominant profile platforms the challenge (still) will be for businesses to get in touch with the customers. Be part of the conversation is essential for a modern organization, and they have to be present on different platforms. The way the platforms will service that need in respect of the user, will define the shape of the social layer in the coming years.

Tons of reviews and thoughts on Google+ are published already, positive and negative, believing in its success as much as believing it will not succeed. Hard to predict. I’m not gonna review the service or predict the future for now. But one aspect is interesting to pinpoint. Google+ is really leveraging on the trend towards more closed communities, or maybe better put as the new conscious communities.

At Reboot 2008 I presented some thoughts on ‘virtual gated communities‘. I was thinking at that moment we would transform the new communities to more closed groups based on shared values, and was thinking how to connect to these more closed communities. In the end it took some more time to move into this more closed circles. In facebook lists it is possible, and in Twitter lists and private accounts are signs people feel the need sometime to talk more privately. Services like Path and Instagram are more private by default, based on the concept of ‘strong bonds’. And now we have Google+ of course.

It looks like this presentation of a year ago is directly linked to the design of the new service of Google. It is a great exploration on the models of making different layers of social friendships, just like real life. Google did choose with Plus to make a different approach. It is remarkable how fast the service is adapted by the users.

There are still a lot of user interface issues to solve in Google+. The whole process to create the circles should be more smart and fluent. And the mental model from invisible circles in the stream have to be plain intuitive and transparent. Than we can build the conscious communities we want to use to communicate. And of course it need more integration with other services. I have stated here before that the message center function of Facebook will be more important in the competition with Google. As we hangout more and more in the social networks messaging will be more in our known circles. If Google+ will succeed in a fluid creation of the circles and integrating this with the other services, they can leap the new landscape of the platform Internet. We will see if a kind of BondRank will be the new EdgeRank and PageRank.

Facebook of course did some strong construction work with the like-ecosystem, and with the huge installed base will be a strong player. But the war of the ecosystems has just started. Google+ will be a serious player, just as Apple with Twitter will be, and Facebook still stay. Combining sharing with no barriers with powerful messaging on different layers will be the key. In that sense it looks like Google chose the right angle.

Today Facebook announced a new messaging platform. I see a lot of cynic reviews. All this reviews are blinded by the idea that Facebook was to announce a Gmail killer. I think one aspect is overlooked; the changing messaging behaviour of new generations.

Of course seen by the bare functionalities the messaging platform does not offer new functionality above combinations of Gmail and Google Talk.
But what is really different is the context of messaging. Tnis new platforms sits in a social context, a place where you are communicating in realtime with friends, putting up to speed with the lifes of people you follow. There you need sometimes different levels of communication. Just like DM in Twitter is a strong communiciation channel.

I believe that a Facebook messaging platform can take an important role in our day-to-day communication with friends. It will be therefor more a competitor for DM, chat and ping, text/sms than it will be for gmail.
But if your are honest, do you know how hard it is to reach the millenial with email?

Update: I just watched this video of Facebook explaining the system. With somewhat more focus on the messaging make easy, but I still think the social realtime context is the strongest element.

Coming Wednesday (November 3rd) Facebook will have an event on mobile. There are many speculations on the expected news, in that sense these events are becoming as hot as those of Apple, from new mobile apps to a Facebook phone. I’m not gonna predict, but I can think what would be interesting. As Facebook does all the time; it will look for a solution that connect the world to Facebook.

Mobile is important for Facebook and will be more important in locking in people to the service. The integration with voice can be interesting in an mobile environment, now they are partnering with Skype. So let’s say; you get a call icon with every post to directly call that one using the technology of Skype. Every account is automatically hooked up to Skype. You don’t need a Skype account (or telephone number anymore), your Facebook identity is your entrance to voice communication. In that sense Facebook will add 500 million accounts to Skype, with whom they joined forces.

I don’t think it is necessary for Facebook to offer their own phone. In contrary, good apps for all platforms where Skype is integrated will be enough to change the way we call today. The weakest point for using Skype as replacement for normal telephone use is the lack of installed base. Not all your friends are on Skype, and Skype is not active all the time. Roaming between mobile and facebook accounts with skype will change that perception.

I think it could be really exciting to see what Facebook will introduce. If it will be the backward integration of Skype it could be as game changing as the social graph tools to connect the world to Facebook.

This week a very interesting presentation by Paul Adams of Google was published on Slideshare called The Real Life Social Network. He nailed some trends in social media on real behavior. It was all over the blogosphere already. It reminds me of my presentation on virtual gated communities at Reboot 11 in 2008. One of the things I was thinking about back then was the way we would create groups with different levels of privacy. It will be very interesting if the presented visions of Adams are translated into a new social approach by Google, just like the rumor that was spread this week by former CTO of Google. Interesting to see how Google are trying to use another angle to confront facebook, with a differentiation in groups. Another thought I had is still valid: can we have interoperability in these groups between different providers?

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Interessant antwoord op een vraag uit de zaal bij SXSW lees ik op de posterous blog van @erwblo:

Vraag via twitter, iemand die bij een verzekeraar werkt en zicht afvraagt hoe hij zich interessanter kan maken. Advies van Christina: ‘Spreek je klanten aan alsof het mensen zijn’. Applaus uit de zaal.

En dat is natuurlijk helemaal waar. En het zou zo maar kunnen dat onder invloed van de opkomst van social media en tools als Twitter organisaties gaan ontdekken dat ze op een menselijke manier moeten communiceren met hun klanten en prospects om interessant te zijn.
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Ik werd getriggerd door deze post (die me via een retweet op Twitter bereikte) waar veel-diggers worden opgeroepen ook vooral te gaan tweeten omdat de social impact veel groter is. Mij bracht het een andere gedachte: wordt Digg overvleugeld door Twitter en zo ja, wat is daar voor nodig?
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Jeroen Mirck postte gisteren hoe hij zijn Twitter-koppeling met de wie-wat-waar-functie van Hyves heeft uitgezet omdat hij klachten kreeg over het vervuilen door zijn tweets. Omdat hij relatief zoveel twittert worden de overzichten van hyves-vrienden ondergesneeuwd door zijn tweets.

Ik heb ditzelfde signaal weleens gehad. Niet in Hyves, maar in Plaxo. Ik word regelmatig aangesproken door niet twitterrelaties die mijn tweets in Plaxo zien, waarbij vaak gekscherend wordt gezegd dat die wel heel dominant zijn. Nog niet tot directe klachten gekomen, maar ik maar besloten preventief te handelen. 

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Veel voorbeelden van diensten en tools zijn er die gebruik maken van de Twitter api om zo een goede eigen Twitter client te bouwen, of die wat extra functionaliteit toevoegen aan Twitter zoals het search van Summize (inmiddels onderdeel van Twitter) of de statistieken van Twitstat. Om er maar een paar te noemen.

Maar verder gaat het als je Twitter gebruikt als middel om een nieuwe dienst in te vullen. Zoals Tweebay, een dienst waarmee je spulletjes verkoopt, maar dan via twitter. En toevallig vandaag een nieuwe dienst verspreid die de makelaar overbodig wil maken door het huizenaanbod via Twitter te laten lopen.

Dit zal het komende jaar vast steeds meer gaat gebeuren. En niet alleen met Twitter. De waarde van Twitter zit natuurlijk in de aanwezige communities. Die wil je gebruiken. Door je dienst zo dicht mogelijk te laten aansluiten op de kerndienst maak je iets relevants. Zal ook met Facebook kunnen gebeuren (zoals bijvoorbeeld de commenttool), of met Flickr. Wanneer komt de eerste politiedienst die de foto’s op Flickr plaatst van de plaats delict om zo de community in te schakelen bij het oplossen.

De kunst is natuurlijk de kernfunctie van tools als Twitter niet te overschaduwen door de diensten. Een mogelijkheid is een onderscheid te maken tussen de community functie en de diensten erbovenop. Voor Twitter zou de vorming van groepen een eerste stap kunnen zijn. Het komende jaar zal uitwijzen of de communities meer en meer zullen worden uitgenut.

Het klinkt misschien wat negatief en zo is het niet bedoeld, maar het is een gedachte die opkwam bij het zien van de discussie in de comments bij een post van Yme Bosma. Steven Kruyswijk gaat helemaal los en gebruikt de post als podium voor zijn eigen visie.

Als je online relevant wil zijn is de conversatie veel belangrijker dan de presence. Als ik bijvoorbeeld zoek naar een interessante messenger bag dan blijkt mijn vraag in Twitter minstens zo relevant als de sites van aanbieders van de tas.

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