It is a tradition on my blog to give some predictions on the coming year. See these for 2009 and 2008 (both in Dutch). I will not look back in detail to see if the predictions came true, in the end it is more a residu of my thinking of that moment, than a serious hitting for the trends to come true. Broader trends are more interesting than one hot wonders, in my opinion, and I’m glad that the predictions of the last two year has started and/or are still developing. As I said last year: the short term developments are always slower, but looking back in a couple of years we will be surprised by the changes.
This said, I will share some thoughts for the coming year; I think this will be a year as a start of a new focus and service attitude.
The crisis seems to walk on its last legs. Seems, but I’m afraid we will get some backlash the coming year. This will help to focus on new and different models. It is said often already, the principle of our economy will change from profit maximalisation to value maximalisation. As I thought last year, in 2010 I think the real steps will occur. Consequence is the focus on developing of service systems in stead of one hit results.
More focus will also on collaborative working, smaller organisations, taking responsibility. It will drive mobile working further, and tools for collaborative working will continue to develop. A merge of Google Wave into Google OS and Google Docs. With a integrated mobile version in Android.
Google will also make a step in creating the augmented knowledge. After the real-time search, the next step in creating the smart layer on our real world will be a Layar-like addition to the mobile search browser. Of course integrated with the point-2-point navigation and mobile ready. Android will gain a serious share in the mobile market and grow bigger than the iPhone, driven by the success of the Nexus One.
In the sense of AR I believe there will be some serious milestones emerge for the internet of things. An important turning point in this field is a shift from a technical focus to a service focus. Services will evolve to smart context adapting services. The first context API will be developed.
An important provider therefor will be the social networks. The playground is over, it will become more and more functional. The creating of the social graph API by Facebook will be an important step. Facebook will evolve with that to a serious second service next to Google for using the internet as an integrated part of everyday life.
Conversations will be a substantial part of marketing communication, but will not take over mass communication yet.
Besides Google and Facebook that will turn service concepts from promise to functional us, Apple will set a new standard of publishing with its tablet. Even faster than the iPod and iPhone did because it is an evolution of the iTunes principles. Hardware acceleration is the most interesting development to watch. It very well could be year where we get some new intuitive devices that integrates the developed intuitive touch-gesture interfaces with augmented cloud steering.
Oh and of course the exploding of our online experience will have a tipping point this year. Through mobile, but also with the first serious use of widgets on tv. One of the drivers will be all the apps that will be developed for the World Soccer Championships and drive the acceptance for this kind of augmented distributed services.
So 2010 will be an interesting year where the main new seeded technologies of 2009 and 2008 from social media to AR will be developed in usable functional services.